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China's future robot industry development and new technological revolution

As we all know, since the 1980s, there has been a wave of "deindustrialization" in developed countries. Its main characteristics are: (1) In developed countries, the labor force has rapidly shifted from the primary and secondary industries to the tertiary industry. , Steel, consumer electronics and other manufacturing industries that had advantages in the past continue to weaken, the proportion of manufacturing in the country’s GDP has continued to decrease, and the service industry has become more and more dominant; 31 (2) In order to make use of relatively cheap labor and resources in developing countries Cost, a large number of manufacturing companies in developed countries have transferred production bases to developing countries, which has promoted the rapid rise of manufacturing in developing countries, especially China; (3) Due to the transfer of production bases abroad, developed countries have made direct investment in manufacturing abroad. Enterprises have not only reduced production costs, enhanced product competitiveness, but also expanded the market and increased profits. However, at the national level, problems such as "hollowing" of manufacturing, rising unemployment, and widening gap between rich and poor have appeared.


Since 2010, with the development of automation production technology such as robots, and the rise of average wage level in developing countries such as China, for manufacturing enterprises in developed countries, there has been a gap between the value of machines and the value of labor they replace (using automated machines is cheaper than using labor), even in the case of manufacturing enterprises in developed countries Developed countries with higher labor costs can also realize the 24-hour continuous production of robots with fewer personnel. As a result, the cheap or already expensive labor force in developing countries is no longer attractive to manufacturing enterprises in developed countries. More and more manufacturing enterprises in developed countries that have made direct investment abroad have begun to "go back home" to promote the development countries to stay in China In particular, in the United States, where the "shale gas revolution" has emerged, shale gas has been used to build large-scale pollution-free power plants, making cheap electricity another important attraction to promote the return of manufacturing enterprises. Of course, the "Reindustrialization" strategy of developed countries is neither to repeat the "industrialization" of that year, nor to attract domestic manufacturing industries to return from abroad, but to realize the upgrading of industrial structure, seize the commanding heights of a new round of scientific and technological revolution, and widen the gap between the manufacturing industries of technologically advanced countries such as the United States, Japan and Europe and those of emerging industrial countries such as China.


While the developed countries are promoting "re industrialization", China, which is still on the way of industrialization, has shown a tendency of "de industrialization" in the process of economic growth slowing down in recent years. The so-called "deindustrialization" refers to that the advantages of manufacturing industry formed by a country tend to shrink and decline gradually, which shows that the proportion of manufacturing output value in the three industries decreases rapidly, while the proportion of service industry increases significantly. From 2012 to 2015, although the prosperity of China's service industry has made an important contribution to keeping the unemployment rate under control, it has transferred millions of migrant workers from manufacturing industry with high productivity to service industry with low productivity (at present, the overall productivity of service industry in China is only 80% of that of industry), which leads to the decline of productivity level of the whole industry. What is more problematic is that with the substantial reduction of the number of migrant workers in the manufacturing industry, the drop in the growth rate of investment, and the withdrawal of some production bases in China by some developed countries, it is likely to widen the gap between China's manufacturing industry and developed countries and form the "Matthew effect" in which the stronger is stronger and the weaker is weaker The United States can use its high-tech advantages as a powerful means to maintain its world hegemony and curb China's rise, which is a trend that we must pay close attention to.

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